Bold warning: Even a small rise in global oil prices can hit Fiji hard, and the stakes are rising as Middle East tensions intensify.
The Fijian Competition and Consumer Commission (FCCC) is watching closely as conflicts in the region threaten to push fuel costs higher in Fiji.
The current crisis follows recent US and Israeli military strikes on Iran, and it has intensified concerns about the safety of the Strait of Hormuz, a pivotal corridor for global oil shipments.
Located between Iran and Oman, the Strait of Hormuz sees roughly 20 million barrels of oil pass through each day—about one-fifth of the world’s total supply. While the strait remains open for now, tensions are high and more than 150 oil and gas tankers have opted to anchor rather than transiting the route.
Markets have already reacted, with global oil prices on the rise.
FCCC Chief Executive Senikavika L. Jiuta explains how Fiji fits into the picture:
- Fiji is a price taker: any global increase translates into higher local fuel prices because Fiji imports all of its fuel. Fuel accounts for about 16 percent of Fiji’s total imports. Local fuel and LPG pricing operates with a roughly one-month lag, meaning global spikes can affect Fiji within a few weeks.
- The impact goes beyond the pump: higher oil prices can ripple through the economy. If disruptions last under two weeks, markets may stabilize. If they extend from one to three months, costs for fuel, food, and goods in Fiji are likely to rise.
What could unfold if tensions worsen?
- A full closure of the strait could send oil prices spiraling to roughly $150–$200 per barrel. That would drive global inflation higher and push up transport and food costs.
- Transport and logistics costs would climb, retailer prices could rise, and both imported foods and local produce might become more expensive. Diesel-powered electricity generation could also become costlier.
- Aviation fuel increases could dampen tourism and visitor numbers.
- The burden would fall most heavily on low-income households. The exact impact would depend on the duration of the conflict, the USD–Fiji dollar exchange rate, shipping and insurance costs, and ongoing global oil price movements.
What is FCCC doing?
The FCCC will keep monitoring developments and share updates to help every Fijian prepare for changing conditions.
Notes: This advisory is based on the FCCC’s March 2026 Market Advisory and Price Forecast for Fiji. Conditions in global markets can shift quickly, so view this as general information.
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