Transfer market won’t fully recover until 2023: best La Liga agency
Fans may have returned to the stadiums for the last two weeks of the Premier League season, but football is far from back to normal, and this summer’s transfer window could be very quiet.
In fact, according to Rodri Baster, founder and director of Promoesport, one of the world’s largest football agencies, the transfer market is unlikely to return to normal before 2023.
Baster says things will start to improve in 2022, before returning to pre-pandemic levels a year later, but this summer will be a time of transition. This will likely resemble last summer’s transfer window, with deals in the range of $ 25-35 million, plus plenty of player loans and swaps, or free transfers from out-of-contract players like Memphis Depay. or Sergio Aguero. But it’s unlikely that there will be a mega-transaction of $ 100 million.
He says that’s because transfer fees typically increase by around 10-15% each year, but haven’t increased during the pandemic, so teams like Borussia Dortmund will likely try to hold onto their assets like Erling Haaland until the market recovered instead. than to sell them at a reduced price.
Baster said that while mega-deals in general are unlikely, Harry Kane is more likely to leave Tottenham Hotspur, as he has already made it clear his desire to leave, and players rarely do so unless they have an interest. official of another club.
He said it would be financially irresponsible for clubs to make such an expense, and such signings would not be common sense, but at the same time football clubs can be impulsive.
Ignoring the swap deals and transfers decided before the start of the pandemic, La Liga saw no transfers over $ 50 million last summer, and the vast majority of big transfers last summer, such than the signing of Timo Werner and Kai Havertz by Chelsea or the signing of Ruben Diaz by Manchester City. came from Premier League clubs. Baster says this trend is likely to continue as Real Madrid and Barcelona traditionally pay significantly more salaries than Premier League sides, and have therefore been hit harder by the pandemic. Without Spain’s two biggest clubs buying new players, there is little money to pour to the next level of La Liga clubs.
With fewer transfers, where does that leave the agents?
Promoesport represents more La Liga players than any other agency, as well as Premier League players like Adama Traore of Wolverhampton Wanderers and Eric Bailly of Manchester United. Baster says large, established agencies are well positioned to deal with the pandemic because they only need to maintain relationships, rather than building a lot of new relationships, which is difficult without face-to-face meetings. But even so, he says they must have been creative and that they do more contract renewals than transfer negotiations.
He also says that despite recent stories like Kevin De Bruyne signing a huge new deal without an agent, it is unlikely to become a trend. There are two main reasons for this.
First, players like De Bruyne may be so tall that they don’t need an agent to represent them in negotiations, but the vast majority of top players are not in the same category as De Bruyne. and must use agencies in order. to find work. Second, while De Bruyne didn’t hire an agent in the traditional sense, he still needs the same services a large agency provides, from legal advice to knowledge of the transfer market and social media support. , and if it is possible to outsource these, it is much more efficient to use an agency.
While there is a lot of speculation this summer, it’s worth noting that last summer’s biggest spenders, Chelsea, did their business early and were also spending money they couldn’t spend the year. previous due to a transfer embargo. Most of the other clubs were conservative last year, and even though the fans are back in the stadiums, club finances are still in a mess.
In a normal year, Barcelona could have shelled out $ 200million for Haaland or Kylian Mbappe. The fact that they would have opted for a free transfer for Sergio Aguero instead should give some idea of where the transfer window is heading this summer.